November 2025 | The Times They Are a-Changin’
NOVEMBER 2025
At my office in Houston, there is an “advice wall” full of wise sayings and old adages. Admittedly, I don’t pay it much mind. However, this week one of the sayings stuck out to me, and I thought it might be worth sharing – especially in light of the Thanksgiving season.
Always remember, there is someone who would love to be in your shoes.
Now, if you’re tempted to cynicism like myself, you might read the statement and think of all the things you don’t have. But wealth is a tricky thing. We often convince ourselves that if we just had a little bit more, it would finally be enough. Thankfully, this reminder helps change the perspective.
As a firm, we wish you and yours a Thanksgiving season full of gratitude and grace. You’ll find a market update and some friendly reminders below.
MARKET UPDATE
Assuming your portfolio is composed primarily of stocks, you’ve likely seen big gains this year. Just last week the S&P 500 hit another all-time high. Earnings are strong, valuations (mega-cap tech excluded) remain reasonable, and inflation trends are improving. Because you were invested, your account values increased. As investors, years like this are the ones we hope for.
Yet, as your advisor and friend, it is my moral obligation to remind you the truth, even in the best of days. Please remember, as prosperity seeks to lull us all to sleep, the following points:
The S&P 500 has averaged an intra-year decline of 14.1% since 1980.
In the past 50 years, the S&P 500 has lost a third of its value on an average of every 5 years.
In this century, the S&P 500 has been halved twice (2000-2002 and 2007-2009).
As frightening as these numbers are, they are no less than the price of admission to capture the gains available to the long-term stock investor. The “gains” defined as the fact that the price of S&P 500 has quintupled in the last 25 years.
When the next drawdown occurs, as it inevitably will, please remember that these declines and all their particular uniqueness are inseparable from the long-term returns available to the patient investor. Ask yourself – “Have my goals changed?” If the answer is no, then your investment plan remains the same, regardless of the current events.
A Quick Note Regarding AI:
Bob Dylan said it best – “The Times They Are a-Changin’.”
Advances in artificial intelligence are not only driving stock prices higher but also changing the employment landscape. In this week’s edition of Jeremy Siegel’s weekly commentary, he says: “Earnings remain the bright spot. Big Tech’s prints and, crucially, 2025–26 AI capex plans underscore why this cycle is different from 1999: these are real firms with real cash flows, not concept stocks.”
Further, you’ve likely seen no lack of articles with some rendition of the title “Is AI going to take our jobs?” Therefore, without building the next AI unicorn startup or spending evenings in an AI prompting bootcamp, how do you keep from being left in the dust?
The simplest way I see, is to be an owner in the companies that are leading the charge (and thereby reaping the profits) in the development and implementation of AI. By investing in a well-diversified stock portfolio, you expose yourself to the profits of the world’s most innovative companies, those not only directly participating in AI, but those companies that will stand to gain increased productivity and efficiency by the implementation thereof.
Following this newsletter will be a separate email with an attachment titled “Client’s Corner” written by Nick Murray. The title of this month’s edition: “Are We Investing in Volatile Stocks or Opportunistic Companies?” I hope you enjoy.
FRIENDLY REMINDERS
Health Insurance – Open enrollment for 2026 health coverage began on November 1st, 2025 and ends on January 15, 2026. The deadline to enroll for coverage that begins January 1st, 2026 is December 15, 2025.
Medicare – The Medicare open enrollment period is October 15, 2025 to December 7, 2025.
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) – RMDs are the minimum amount you must withdraw from your traditional IRA, SEP IRA, SIMPLE IRA, and retirement plan accounts when you reach age 73, and moving forward. In general, RMDs are due by December 31st for that particular year, or by April 1st of the following year, if it’s your first year to take an RMD.
One Big Beautiful Bill – Consider having a tax planning meeting with your CPA, especially if you are in agriculture, to see if there are any changes from the bill that might apply to you that would require action before the end of the year.
As always, please reach out if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Brock Hedgecoke, CFP®
Financial Advisor