October 2025 | A Bull Market & Disinflation - What Are We to Do?
OCTOBER 2025
Welcome to the “spooky” season–the government is shut down, and the S&P 500 is sitting at a record high. Hard to believe we are in the same year as the -19% market drop following the tariff announcements in April*. As I’m sure you’ve all grown accustomed, the stock market never ceases to amaze. A quick update below.
MARKET UPDATE
As I write (the morning of October 8, 2025), the S&P 500 is up 15% year-to-date. Disinflation continues, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, and another 25-basis-point cut is expected at the next. Though these cuts come in response to what appears to be a cooling market, analysts remain constructive on equities. That said, I do not know how long this bull market will last. I do know that, at some point, a new current event will make its way to the headlines — and markets will respond. If April taught us anything, I hope it serves as a potent reminder that the phrase “this time it’s different” should be sincerely distrusted. Meanwhile, companies continue to innovate, hire top talent, reduce inefficiencies, and seek to deliver the highest possible returns to shareholders.
Given that we do not know the length of this bull market — nor the date, depth, or speed of the next downturn — how are we to invest? We invest according to your personal goals and in line with your time horizon. Assuming your goals include outpacing inflation and taxes throughout your lifetime, a healthy allocation to stocks (defined as “as much as you can stomach”) is almost certainly the answer. Regarding time horizon, remember that life expectancy today is much different than it was for your parents. You are not simply investing for the day you retire, but rather so that your investments will last for the length of your life. Your participation in the growth of the companies that make up a well-diversified stock portfolio is an integral means to that end.
*Source: S&P 500 “Annual returns and intra-year declines,” J.P. Morgan “Guide to the Markets” as of 09/30/2025
FRIENDLY REMINDERS
Health Insurance – Open enrollment for 2026 health coverage begins on November 1st, 2025 and ends on January 15, 2026. The deadline to enroll for coverage that begins January 1st, 2026 is December 15, 2025.
Medicare – The Medicare open enrollment period is October 15, 2025 to December 7, 2025.
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) – We will be completing RMDs over the next couple of months. If you are subject to an RMD, we will be reaching out to discuss your distribution options.
One Big Beautiful Bill – Please consider having a tax planning meeting with your CPA, especially if you are in agriculture, to see if there are any changes from the bill that might apply to you that would require action before the end of the year.
Sincerely,
Brock Hedgecoke, CFP®
Financial Advisor